Vertical Disintegration: A Dynamic Markovian Approach

In a model where a monopolistic downstream firm (assembler) negotiates simultaneously with each of its intermediate‐input suppliers the prices of the complementary components which enter its product, we analyze the process by which the assembler separates from its suppliers as a Markov Perfect equilibrium. Due to a negative strategic effect (the prices and profits of independent suppliers decrease when their number increases), the assembler’s marginal return from keeping an upstream subsidiary is lower than the market value of an independent supplier. Separation is immediate when the downstream firm’s initial number of upstream subsidiaries is below a critical level. It is progressive in the reverse case and eventually leads to a mixed strategy whereby the assembler keeps all the remaining subsidiaries with some probability, and sells all them off in one go with the complementary probability.     

“Economic Capital Allocation Derived from Risk Measures”, Eddy Van den Borre,January 2003

Abstract

The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent times because of its potential impact on population size and structure, social security systems, and (from an actuarial perspective) the life insurance and pensions industry worldwide. Despite the number of papers published in recent years, a comprehensive review has not yet been developed.

This paper attempts to be the starting point for that review, highlighting the importance of recently published research—most of the references cited span the last 10 years—and covering the main methodologies that have been applied to the projection of mortality rates in the United Kingdom and the United States. A comparative review of techniques used in official population projections, actuarial applications, and the most influential scientific approaches is provided. In the course of the review an attempt is made to identify common themes and similarities in methods and results.

In both official projections and actuarial applications there is some evidence of systematic overestimation of mortality rates. Models developed by academic researchers seem to reveal a trade-off between the plausibility of the projected age pattern and the ease of measuring the uncertainty involved. The Lee-Carter model is one approach that appears to solve this apparent dilemma.

There is a broad consensus across the resulting projections: (1) an approximately log-linear relationship between mortality rates and time, (2) decreasing improvements according to age, and (3) an increasing trend in the relative rate of mortality change over age. In addition, evidence suggests that excessive reliance on expert opinion—present to some extent in all methods—has led to systematic underestimation of mortality improvements.     

The impact of coding time on the estimation of school effects

Multilevel growth curve models are becoming invaluable in educational research because they model changes in student outcomes efficiently. The coding of the time variable in these models plays a crucial role as illustrated in this study for the case of a three-level quadratic growth curve model. This paper shows clearly how the choice of a time coding affects school effects estimates and their interpretation. A new definition for school effects for growth curve models with random intercepts and slopes is proposed. This study recommends that the choice of a time coding should not only be based on the ease of interpretation and model convergence but also on its consequences on the student status and growth parameter estimates. The current application illustrates that in general the school effects for student growth in well-being and language achievement in secondary school, are greater for student growth than for student status.     

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the International Oilseed Complex

One approach to trade liberalization is the zero-for-zero sectoral approach which involves agreements to eliminate export subsidies, import tariffs, and export taxes in a sector. This article provides an assessment of the impact of border trade liberalization on oilseeds and oilseed products trade. The analysis suggests that under all of the scenarios examined, North American oilseed crushers and oilseed producers gain from trade liberalization. The exact size and the distribution of these gains depends on the number of countries that participate in trade liberalization. The results suggest that the United States and Canada would gain from the adoption of the zero-for-zero proposal.     

The impact of the current economic crisis on the geography of air traffic volumes: an empirical analysis

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of air services dynamics during the recent economic crisis. Through a regression analysis, we show that at the country scale, the change in the supply of seats is highly dependent on economic growth, confirming the cyclical nature of the air sector. Hence the crisis of air services has much more affected the USA, Europe and Japan than the rest of the world. However, many countries deviate from this general trend. In a second step, using the existing literature, we explain some of these deviating figures. National specificities and airline strategies seem to influence the intensity of the crisis. We argue that the intensity of the crisis in the US is due to the structural oversupply of the air sector. Through other cases, especially the Middle East, we show that hubbing strategies might reduce the impact of the crisis, or at least make it less dependent upon local economic dynamics. In contrast with other authors, we found no positive impact of the share of low-cost carriers on the supply during the crisis, despite their success in some specific contexts like between Europe and Morocco.     

The Distributional and Allocative Impacts of Virtual Labor Mobility across Time Zones through Communication Networks

Using a specific‐factors' model, with two goods (a shift‐working good and a non‐shift‐working good), three factors (capital specific to shift‐working, land specific to non‐shift‐working and labor) and two countries (Home and Foreign), which are located in different time zones, we highlight the impact of trade in labor services via communication networks on factor prices and production patterns. If two countries are identical in size, then under free trade in labor services, all workers work only in their local daytime, and night shift in each country is performed by imported labor services supplied by residents of the other country in their local daytime. Night‐time wage becomes the same as daytime wage (a wage equalization result). Other factor prices are also equalized. In both countries, capital rental rate increases, while land rent decreases. However, if two countries are different in size, trade in labor services does not equalize wages: in the large country, wages for night‐shift workers are higher than daytime wages and some residents work at night; in the small country, daytime wages become higher than night‐time wages and no one works at night, and night‐shift work is done by imported labor services from the large country. Land rent in the small country decreases. Land rent in the large country may or may not decrease, but it is always higher than in the small country. Capital rental rates in both countries are equalized and increase.     

A Risk-Return Analysis of a Firm's Working-Capital Position

In this paper, a method is proposed by which management is able to analyze the risk-return tradeoff for various levels of liquid assets for the firm and for different maturity compositions of its debt. Together, these factors determine its working-capital position. Certain probability concepts are employed; and information is provided about the risk of cash insolvency for alternative strategies. In addition, the opportunity costs of these strategies are determined. With the framework proposed, more rational working-capital decisions are possible. The firm is able to achieve a working-capital position that provides the appropriate margin of safety in relation to the cost involved in attaining that position     

How a Reduction of Standard Working Hours Affects Employment Dynamics

December 1, 1996 a new law was implemented in Portugal to gradually reduce the standard workweek from 44 to 40 h. We study how this mandatory reduction affected employment through job creation and job destruction. There was considerable regional, sectoral and firm-size variation in the share of workers who were affected by the working hours reduction. We exploit this variation to assess the impact of the workweek reduction. We find evidence that the working hours reduction had a positive effect on employment through a fall in job destruction.